Amundsen Sea Ice Loss Contributes to Australian Wildfires.

Wildfires in Australia have attracted extensive attention in recent years, especially for the devastating 2019-2020 fire season. Remote forcing, such as those from tropical oceans, plays an important role in driving the abnormal weather conditions associated with wildfires. However, whether high latitude climate change can impact Australian fires is largely unclear. In this study, we reveal a robust relationship between Antarctic sea ice concentration (SIC), primarily over the Amundsen Sea region, with Australian springtime fire activity, by using reanalysis data sets, AMIP simulation results, and a state-of-the-art climate model simulation. Specifically, a diminished Amundsen SIC leads to the formation of a high-pressure system above Australia as a result of the eastward propagation of Rossby waves. Meanwhile, two strengthened meridional cells originating from the tropic and polar regions also enhance subsiding airflow in Australia, resulting in prolonged arid and high-temperature conditions. This mechanism explains about 28% of the variability of Australian fire weather and contributed more than 40% to the 2019 extreme burning event, especially in the eastern hotspots. These findings contribute to our understanding of polar-low latitude climate teleconnection and have important implications for projecting Australian fires as well as the global environment.

Evidence of increasing wildfire damage with decreasing property price in Southern California fires.

Across the Western United States, human development into the wildland urban interface (WUI) is contributing to increasing wildfire damage. Given that natural disasters often cause greater harm within socio-economically vulnerable groups, research is needed to explore the potential for disproportionate impacts associated with wildfire. Using Zillow Transaction and Assessment Database (ZTRAX), hereafter "Zillow", real estate data, we explored whether lower-priced structures were more likely to be damaged during the most destructive, recent wildfires in Southern California. Within fire perimeters occurring from 2000-2019, we matched property price data to burned and unburned structures. To be included in the final dataset, fire perimeters had to surround at least 25 burned and 25 unburned structures and have been sold at most seven years before the fire; five fires fit these criteria. We found evidence to support our hypothesis that lower-priced properties were more likely to be damaged, however, the likelihood of damage and the influence of property value significantly varied across individual fire perimeters. When considering fires individually, properties within two 2003 fires-the Cedar and Grand Prix-Old Fires-had statistically significantly decreasing burn damage with increasing property value. Occurring in 2007 and later, the other three fires (Witch-Poomacha, Thomas, and Woolsey) showed no significant relationship between price and damage. Consistent with other studies, topographic position, slope, elevation, and vegetation were also significantly associated with the likelihood of a structure being damaged during the wildfire. Driving time to the nearest fire station and previously identified fire hazard were also significant. Our results suggest that further studies on the extent and reason for disproportionate impacts of wildfire are needed. In the meantime, decision makers should consider allocating wildfire risk mitigation resources-such as fire-fighting and wildfire structural preparedness resources-to more socioeconomically vulnerable neighborhoods.

Neotropical mammal responses to megafires in the Brazilian Pantanal.

The increasing frequency and severity of human-caused fires likely have deleterious effects on species distribution and persistence. In 2020, megafires in the Brazilian Pantanal burned 43% of the biome's unburned area and resulted in mass mortality of wildlife. We investigated changes in habitat use or occupancy for an assemblage of eight mammal species in Serra do Amolar, Brazil, following the 2020 fires using a pre- and post-fire camera trap dataset. Additionally, we estimated the density for two naturally marked species, jaguars Panthera onca and ocelots Leopardus pardalis. Of the eight species, six (ocelots, collared peccaries Dicotyles tajacu, giant armadillos Priodontes maximus, Azara's agouti Dasyprocta azarae, red brocket deer Mazama americana, and tapirs Tapirus terrestris) had declining occupancy following fires, and one had stable habitat use (pumas Puma concolor). Giant armadillo experienced the most precipitous decline in occupancy from 0.431 ± 0.171 to 0.077 ± 0.044 after the fires. Jaguars were the only species with increasing habitat use, from 0.393 ± 0.127 to 0.753 ± 0.085. Jaguar density remained stable across years (2.8 ± 1.3, 3.7 ± 1.3, 2.6 ± 0.85/100 km2), while ocelot density increased from 13.9 ± 3.2 to 16.1 ± 5.2/100 km2. However, the low number of both jaguars and ocelots recaptured after the fire period suggests that immigration may have sustained the population. Our results indicate that the megafires will have significant consequences for species occupancy and fitness in fire-affected areas. The scale of megafires may inhibit successful recolonization, thus wider studies are needed to investigate population trends.

A crescente frequência e gravidade dos incêndios causados pelo homem provavelmente terão efeitos deletérios na distribuição e persistência das espécies. Em 2020, mega incêndios no Pantanal brasileiro queimaram 43% do bioma e resultaram na mortalidade em massa da vida selvagem. Nós investigamos mudanças no uso ou ocupação do habitat para uma comunidade de oito espécies de mamíferos na Serra do Amolar, Brasil, após os incêndios de 2020, usando um conjunto de dados de armadilhas fotográficas instaladas no período pré e pós­fogo. Além disso, estimamos a densidade de duas espécies naturalmente marcadas, a onça­pintada Panthera onca e a jaguatirica Leopardus pardalis. Das oito espécies, seis (a jaguatirica, o cateto Dicotyles tajacu, o tatu­canastra Priodontes maximus, a cutia Dasyprocta azarae, o veado mateiro Mazama americana e a anta Tapirus terrestris) tiveram ocupação reduzida após os incêndios, e uma teve uso de habitat estável (a onça­parda, Puma concolor). O tatu­canastra apresentou o declínio mais acentuado na ocupação após os incêndios de 0,431 ± 0,171 para 0,077 ± 0,044. A onça­pintada foi a única espécie com uso crescente de habitat, de 0,393 ± 0,127 para 0,753 ± 0,085. A densidade da onça­pintada permaneceu estável ao longo dos anos (2,8 ± 1,3, 3,7 ± 1,3, 2,6 ± 0,85/100 km2), enquanto a densidade da jaguatirica aumentou de 13,9 ± 3,2 para 16,1 ± 5,2/100 km2. No entanto, o baixo número de onças­pintadas e jaguatiricas recapturadas após o período do fogo sugere que a imigração pode ter sustentado as populações. Nossos resultados indicam que os mega incêndios terão consequências significativas para a ocupação e resiliência das espécies nas áreas afetadas pelo fogo. A escala dos mega incêndios pode inibir uma recolonização bem­sucedida, pelo que são necessários estudos mais amplos para investigar as tendências populacionais.

Photochemical evolution of the molecular composition of dissolved organic carbon and dissolved brown carbon from wood smoldering.

Recently, extreme wildfires occur frequently around the world and emit substantial brown carbon (BrC) into the atmosphere, whereas the molecular compositions and photochemical evolution of BrC remain poorly understood. In this work, primary smoke aerosols were generated from wood smoldering, and secondary smoke aerosols were formed by the OH radical photooxidation in an oxidation flow reactor, where both primary and secondary smoke samples were collected on filters. After solvent extraction of filter samples, the molecular composition of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) was determined by Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR MS). The molecular composition of dissolved BrC was obtained based on the constraints of DOC formulae. The proportion of dissolved BrC fractions accounted for approximately 1/3-1/2 molecular formulae of DOC. The molecular characteristics of dissolved BrC showed higher levels of carbon oxidation state, double bond equivalents, and modified aromaticity index than those of DOC, indicating that dissolved BrC fractions were a class of organic structures with relatively higher oxidation state, unsaturated and aromatic degree in DOC fractions. The comparative analysis suggested that aliphatic and olefinic structures dominated DOC fractions (contributing to 70.1%-76.9%), while olefinic, aromatic, and condensed aromatic structures dominated dissolved BrC fractions (contributing to 97.5%-99.9%). It is worth noting that dissolved BrC fractions only contained carboxylic-rich alicyclic molecules (CRAMs)-like structures, unsaturated hydrocarbons, aromatic structures, and highly oxygenated compounds. CRAMs-like structures were the most abundant species in both DOC and dissolved BrC fractions. Nevertheless, the specific molecular characteristics for DOC and dissolved BrC fractions varied with subgroups after aging. The results highlight the similarities and differences in the molecular compositions and characteristics of DOC and dissolved BrC fractions with aging. This work will provide insights into understanding the molecular composition of DOC and dissolved BrC in smoke.

Exploring the prevalence and predictors of low resilience and likely PTSD in residents of two provinces in Canada during the 2023 wildfires.

Background: The recent wildfires in Canada serve as a stark example of the substantial and enduring harm they cause to the health of individuals and communities. Assessing the prevalence and correlates of Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and low resilience is valuable for policymakers in public health. Objectives: The study aimed to assess the prevalence and predictors of low resilience and likely PTSD among subscribers of Text4Hope, an e-mental health program that delivered daily supportive messages to residents of Nova Scotia (NS) and Alberta(AB) during the recent wildfires. Method: Data collection was through a self-administered online survey completed by residents of the affected regions of NS and AB from May 14 to June 23, 2023. Data were analyzed using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences. Results: Out of 298 respondents, the prevalence of low resilience and likely PTSD in our sample were 52.0 and 39.3%, respectively. Unemployed respondents were about 3 times more likely to experience both low resilience and PTSD symptoms compared to those employed. Respondents with a history of mental health diagnosis were about 4 times more likely to experience likely PTSD compared to those with no history of mental health diagnosis. Conclusion: This study established that unemployment and a history of mental health diagnosis predicted likely PTSD, while unemployment was associated with low resilience during the wildfire. These findings offer insights for clinical interventions and the creation of psychosocial support programs for vulnerable populations.

Climate change and health: rethinking public health messaging for wildfire smoke and extreme heat co-exposures.

With the growing climate change crisis, public health agencies and practitioners must increasingly develop guidance documents addressing the public health risks and protective measures associated with multi-hazard events. Our Policy and Practice Review aims to assess current public health guidance and related messaging about co-exposure to wildfire smoke and extreme heat and recommend strengthened messaging to better protect people from these climate-sensitive hazards. We reviewed public health messaging published by governmental agencies between January 2013 and May 2023 in Canada and the United States. Publicly available resources were eligible if they discussed the co-occurrence of wildfire smoke and extreme heat and mentioned personal interventions (protective measures) to prevent exposure to either hazard. We reviewed local, regional, and national governmental agency messaging resources, such as online fact sheets and guidance documents. We assessed these resources according to four public health messaging themes, including (1) discussions around vulnerable groups and risk factors, (2) symptoms associated with these exposures, (3) health risks of each exposure individually, and (4) health risks from combined exposure. Additionally, we conducted a detailed assessment of current messaging about measures to mitigate exposure. We found 15 online public-facing resources that provided health messaging about co-exposure; however, only one discussed all four themes. We identified 21 distinct protective measures mentioned across the 15 resources. There is considerable variability and inconsistency regarding the types and level of detail across described protective measures. Of the identified 21 protective measures, nine may protect against both hazards simultaneously, suggesting opportunities to emphasize these particular messages to address both hazards together. More precise, complete, and coordinated public health messaging would protect against climate-sensitive health outcomes attributable to wildfire smoke and extreme heat co-exposures.

Impact of Wildfires on Cardiovascular Health.

Wildfire smoke (WFS) is a mixture of respirable particulate matter, environmental gases, and other hazardous pollutants that originate from the unplanned burning of arid vegetation during wildfires. The increasing size and frequency of recent wildfires has escalated public and occupational health concerns regarding WFS inhalation, by either individuals living nearby and downstream an active fire or wildland firefighters and other workers that face unavoidable exposure because of their profession. In this review, we first synthesize current evidence from environmental, controlled, and interventional human exposure studies, to highlight positive associations between WFS inhalation and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Motivated by these findings, we discuss preventative measures and suggest interventions to mitigate the cardiovascular impact of wildfires. We then review animal and cell exposure studies to call attention on the pathophysiological processes that support the deterioration of cardiovascular tissues and organs in response to WFS inhalation. Acknowledging the challenges of integrating evidence across independent sources, we contextualize laboratory-scale exposure approaches according to the biological processes that they model and offer suggestions for ensuring relevance to the human condition. Noting that wildfires are significant contributors to ambient air pollution, we compare the biological responses triggered by WFS to those of other harmful pollutants. We also review evidence for how WFS inhalation may trigger mechanisms that have been proposed as mediators of adverse cardiovascular effects upon exposure to air pollution. We finally conclude by highlighting research areas that demand further consideration. Overall, we aspire for this work to serve as a catalyst for regulatory initiatives to mitigate the adverse cardiovascular effects of WFS inhalation in the community and alleviate the occupational risk in wildland firefighters.

Mapping the distance between fire hazard and disaster for communities in Canadian forests.

Communities interspersed throughout the Canadian wildland are threatened by fires that have become bigger and more frequent in some parts of the country in recent decades. Identifying the fireshed (source area) and pathways from which wildland fire may ignite and spread from the landscape to a community is crucial for risk-reduction strategy and planning. We used outputs from a fire simulation model, including fire polygons and rate of spread, to map firesheds, fire pathways and corridors and spread distances for 1980 communities in the forested areas of Canada. We found fireshed sizes are larger in the north, where the mean distances between ecumene and fireshed perimeters were greater than 10 km. The Rayleigh Z test indicated that simulated fires around a large proportion of communities show significant directional trends, and these trends are stronger in the Boreal Plains and Shields than in the Rocky Mountain area. The average distance from which fire, when spreading at the maximum simulated rate, could reach the community perimeter was approximately 5, 12 and 18 km in 1, 2 and 3 days, respectively. The average daily spread distances increased latitudinally, from south to north. Spread distances were the shortest in the Pacific Maritime, Atlantic Maritime and Boreal Plains Ecozones, implying lower rates of spread compared to the rest of the country. The fire corridors generated from random ignitions and from ignitions predicted from local fire history differ, indicating that factors other than fuel (e.g. fire weather, ignition pattern) play a significant role in determining the direction that fires burn into a community.

Development of a deep learning-based surveillance system for forest fire detection and monitoring using UAV.

This study presents a surveillance system developed for early detection of forest fires. Deep learning is utilized for aerial detection of fires using images obtained from a camera mounted on a designed four-rotor Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV). The object detection performance of YOLOv8 and YOLOv5 was examined for identifying forest fires, and a CNN-RCNN network was constructed to classify images as containing fire or not. Additionally, this classification approach was compared with the YOLOv8 classification. Onboard NVIDIA Jetson Nano, an embedded artificial intelligence computer, is used as hardware for real-time forest fire detection. Also, a ground station interface was developed to receive and display fire-related data. Thus, access to fire images and coordinate information was provided for targeted intervention in case of a fire. The UAV autonomously monitored the designated area and captured images continuously. Embedded deep learning algorithms on the Nano board enable the UAV to detect forest fires within its operational area. The detection methods produced the following results: 96% accuracy for YOLOv8 classification, 89% accuracy for YOLOv8n object detection, 96% accuracy for CNN-RCNN classification, and 89% accuracy for YOLOv5n object detection.

Drought triggers and sustains overnight fires in North America.

Overnight fires are emerging in North America with previously unknown drivers and implications. This notable phenomenon challenges the traditional understanding of the 'active day, quiet night' model of the diurnal fire cycle1-3 and current fire management practices4,5. Here we demonstrate that drought conditions promote overnight burning, which is a key mechanism fostering large active fires. We examined the hourly diurnal cycle of 23,557 fires and identified 1,095 overnight burning events (OBEs, each defined as a night when a fire burned through the night) in North America during 2017-2020 using geostationary satellite data and terrestrial fire records. A total of 99% of OBEs were associated with large fires (>1,000 ha) and at least one OBE was identified in 20% of these large fires. OBEs were early onset after ignition and OBE frequency was positively correlated with fire size. Although warming is weakening the climatological barrier to night-time fires6, we found that the main driver of recent OBEs in large fires was the accumulated fuel dryness and availability (that is, drought conditions), which tended to lead to consecutive OBEs in a single wildfire for several days and even weeks. Critically, we show that daytime drought indicators can predict whether an OBE will occur the following night, which could facilitate early detection and management of night-time fires. We also observed increases in fire weather conditions conducive to OBEs over recent decades, suggesting an accelerated disruption of the diurnal fire cycle.

Infectious Diseases in a Changing Climate.

This JAMA Insights in the Climate Change and Health series discusses the importance of clinicians having awareness of changes in the geographic range, seasonality, and intensity of transmission of infectious diseases to help them diagnose, treat, and prevent these diseases.

Wildfire-related PM2.5 and cardiovascular mortality: A difference-in-differences analysis in Brazil.

Brazil has experienced unprecedented wildfires recently. We aimed to investigate the association of wildfire-related fine particulate matter (PM2.5) with cause-specific cardiovascular mortality, and to estimate the attributable mortality burden. Exposure to wildfire-related PM2.5 was defined as exposure to annual mean wildfire-related PM2.5 concentrations in the 1-year prior to death. The variant difference-in-differences method was employed to explore the wildfire-related PM2.5-cardiovascular mortality association. We found that, in Brazil, compared with the population in the first quartile (Q1: ≤1.82 µg/m3) of wildfire-related PM2.5 exposure, those in the fourth quartile (Q4: 4.22-17.12 µg/m3) of wildfire-related PM2.5 exposure had a 2.2% (RR: 1.022, 95% CI: 1.013-1.032) higher risk for total cardiovascular mortality, 3.1% (RR: 1.031, 95% CI: 1.014-1.048) for ischaemic heart disease mortality, and 2.0% (RR: 1.020, 95% CI: 1.002-1.038) for stroke mortality. From 2010 to 2018, an estimation of 35,847 (95% CI: 22,424-49,177) cardiovascular deaths, representing 17.77 (95% CI: 11.12-24.38) per 100,000 population, were attributable to wildfire-related PM2.5 exposure. Targeted health promotion strategies should be developed for local governments to protect the public from the risk of wildfire-related cardiovascular premature deaths.

California Case Study of Wildfires and Prescribed Burns: PM2.5 Emissions, Concentrations, and Implications for Human Health.

Wildfires are a significant threat to human health, in part through degraded air quality. Prescribed burning can reduce wildfire severity but can also lead to an increase in air pollution. The complexities of fires and atmospheric processes lead to uncertainties when predicting the air quality impacts of fire and make it difficult to fully assess the costs and benefits of an expansion of prescribed fire. By modeling differences in emissions, surface conditions, and meteorology between wildfire and prescribed burns, we present a novel comparison of the air quality impacts of these fire types under specific scenarios. One wildfire and two prescribed burn scenarios were considered, with one prescribed burn scenario optimized for potential smoke exposure. We found that PM2.5 emissions were reduced by 52%, from 0.27 to 0.14 Tg, when fires burned under prescribed burn conditions, considerably reducing PM2.5 concentrations. Excess short-term mortality from PM2.5 exposure was 40 deaths for fires under wildfire conditions and 39 and 15 deaths for fires under the default and optimized prescribed burn scenarios, respectively. Our findings suggest prescribed burns, particularly when planned during conditions that minimize smoke exposure, could be a net benefit for the impacts of wildfires on air quality and health.

Forest fire risk zoning based on fuzzy logic and analytical network process.

Forest fires have a significant impact on human life, property safety, and ecological environment. Deve-loping high-quality forest fire risk maps is beneficial for preventing forest fires, guiding resource allocation for firefighting, assisting in fire suppression efforts, and supporting decision-making. With a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method based on geographic information systems (GIS) and literature review, we assessed the main factors influencing the occurrences of forest fires in Youxi County, Fujian Province. We analyzed the importance of each fire risk factor using the analytic network process (ANP) and assigned weights, and evaluated the sub-standard weights using fuzzy logic assessment. Using ArcGIS aggregation functions, we generated a forest fire risk map and validated it with satellite fire points. The results showed that the areas classified as level 4 or higher fire risk accounted for a considerable proportion in Youxi County, and that the central and northern regions were at higher risk. The overall fire risk situation in the county was severe. The fuzzy ANP model demonstrated a high accuracy of 85.8%. The introduction of this novel MCDA method could effectively improve the accuracy of forest fire risk mapping at a small scale, providing a basis for early fire warning and the planning and allocation of firefighting resources.

Pregnancy exposure to PM2.5 from wildland fire smoke and preterm birth in California.

BACKGROUND: Wildfires in the Western United States are a growing and significant source of air pollution that is eroding decades of progress in air pollution reduction. The effects on preterm birth during critical periods of pregnancy are unknown. METHODS: We assessed associations between prenatal exposure to wildland fire smoke and risk of preterm birth (gestational age < 37 weeks). We assigned smoke exposure to geocoded residence at birth for all live singleton births in California conceived 2007-2018, using weekly average concentrations of particulate matter ≤ 2.5 µm (PM2.5) attributable to wildland fires from United States Environmental Protection Agency's Community Multiscale Air Quality Model. Logistic regression yielded odds ratio (OR) for preterm birth in relation to increases in average exposure across the whole pregnancy, each trimester, and each week of pregnancy. Models adjusted for season, age, education, race/ethnicity, medical insurance, and smoking of the birthing parent. RESULTS: For the 5,155,026 births, higher wildland fire PM2.5 exposure averaged across pregnancy, or any trimester, was associated with higher odds of preterm birth. The OR for an increase of 1 µg/m3 of average wildland fire PM2.5 during pregnancy was 1.013 (95 % CI:1.008,1.017). Wildland fire PM2.5 during most weeks of pregnancy was associated with higher odds. Strongest estimates were observed in weeks in the second and third trimesters. A 10 µg/m3 increase in average wildland fire PM2·5 in gestational week 23 was associated with OR = 1.034; 95 % CI: 1.019, 1.049 for preterm birth. CONCLUSIONS: Preterm birth is sensitive to wildland fire PM2.5; therefore, we must reduce exposure during pregnancy.

Wildfire particulate exposure and risks of preterm birth and low birth weight in the Southwestern United States.

OBJECTIVES: Wildfire air pollution is a growing concern on human health. The study aims to assess the associations between wildfire air pollution and pregnancy outcomes in the Southwestern United States. STUDY DESIGN: This was a retrospective cohort study. METHODS: Birth records of 627,404 singleton deliveries in 2018 were obtained in eight states of the Southwestern United States and were linked to wildfire-sourced fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and their constituents (black carbon [BC] and organic carbon [OC]) during the entire gestational period. A double-robust logistic regression model was used to assess the associations of wildfire-sourced PM2.5 exposures and preterm birth and term low birth weight, adjusting for non-fire-sourced PM2.5 exposure and individual- and area-level confounder variables. RESULTS: Wildfire-sourced PM2.5 contributed on average 15% of the ambient total PM2.5 concentrations. For preterm birth, the strongest association was observed in the second trimester (odds ratio [OR]: 1.06, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.05-1.07 for PM2.5; 1.06, 95% CI: 1.05-1.07 for BC; 1.04, 95% CI: 1.03-1.05 for OC, per interquartile range increment of exposure), with higher risks identified among non-smokers or those with low socio-economic status. For term low birth weight, the associations with wildfire-sourced PM2.5 exposures were consistently elevated for all trimesters except for the exposure averaged over the entire gestational period. Overall, the associations between wildfire-sourced PM2.5 and pregnancy outcomes were stronger than those with total PM2.5. CONCLUSIONS: Wildfire-sourced PM2.5 and its constituents are linked to higher risks of preterm birth and term low birth weight among a significant US population than the effects of ambient total PM2.5.